← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
decks
8
(8.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
51
20-23-8
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.0%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1317
· range 1135–1648
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1195
Q3 1418
1678
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.5% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 42.4% | -4.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 54.5% | +2.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -7.8 |
| Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.8 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
